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How this works
- Each job trains one small model per National Weather Service office (116 offices in the lower 48) for each weather type, then scores it against the official forecast (the National Blend of Models, NBM) on held-out days from November–December 2024. The blind test year is not used.
- Offices are worked on in groups: the data for a group is prepared first, then each office is trained. Two processing units share the work.
- If training becomes unstable, the office is retried automatically at a lower learning rate. After 3 real failures of the same kind, the job stops itself and a person checks it.
- Jobs wait for the twice-daily live forecast runs, so live forecasts always come first.
- Scores are an MSE skill score: "squared error X% lower than the official forecast." Offices whose 95% confidence interval crosses zero are shown as roughly tied.